Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers

Lawmakers are demanding investigations into the prediction market platform Polymarket following instances of new, anonymous accounts making highly profitable, well-timed bets on major geopolitical events. These bets, placed hours before events like a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement and the capture of Nicolas Maduro, have raised concerns about insider trading. Researchers estimate that significant profits have been made on Polymarket by individuals with potential insider information on various events. Representative Ritchie Torres has called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate these trades, questioning the statistical likelihood of such accurate predictions without insider knowledge. Senator Richard Blumenthal has also written to Polymarket, questioning their allowance of trades on war and violence and their efforts to prevent insider trading. Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns that these platforms could be exploited by adversaries. Polymarket, which has limited access in the U.S. and operates a separate offshore platform, is seeking to re-enter the U.S. market. The company's operations and regulatory status are under scrutiny as they aim to compete in the lucrative prediction and sports betting markets. Donald Trump Jr. has investments in Polymarket and advises Kalshi, another prediction market platform.